Peer-Reviewed Journal Articles
(lead author) with Gary Goertz, Paul Diehl, and Andy Owsiak "The Saavedra Lamas Peace: How a Norm Complex Evolved and Crystallized to Eliminate War in the Americas," International Studies Quarterly, 68, no. 2 (2024).
with Raul Madrid "Reining in Rebellion: The Decline of Political Violence in South America, 1830-1929," International Security, 48, no. 3 (2024): 129-167.
with Detlef Nolte "To Lead or Not to Lead: Regional Powers and Regional Leadership," International Politics, 61, no. 1 (2024): 40-59.
with Aníbal Pérez Liñán and Kelly Morrison "Compliance in Time: Lessons from the Inter-American Court of Human Rights," International Studies Review, 25, no. 1 (2023): 1-23.
(lead author) with Pedro Feliú, Dawisson Lopes and Guilherme Casarões"Myths of Multipolarity: The Sources of Brazil's Foreign Policy Overstretch," Foreign Policy Analysis, 18, no. 1 (2022): 1-22.
“Bringing War Back In: Victory and State Formation in Latin America,”American Journal of Political Science, 65, no. 2 (2021): 405-421. Awarded Best Paper on Political Institutions, Latin American Studies Association, 2020.
(lead author) with Gary Goertz, Paul Diehl, and Andy Owsiak “Settling Resistant Territorial Disputes: The Territorial Boundary Peace in Latin America,”International Studies Quarterly, 64, no. 1 (2020): 57-70. Appendix 1, Appendix 2, Appendix 3, Appendix 4.
(lead author) with Jorge Battaglino and Sean Braniff “Was the Malvinas/Falklands a Diversionary War? A Prospect Theory Reinterpretation of Argentina's Decline,”Security Studies, 29, no. 1 (2020): 34-63. Appendix 1. Awarded Best Article on Defense, Security and Democracy, Latin American Studies Association, 2020.
with Federico Merke and Diego Reynoso “Foreign Policy Change in Latin America: Exploring a Middle Range Concept,”Latin American Research Review, 55, no. 3 (2020): 413-429.
with Camilo Nieto "Backing Despots? Foreign Aid and the Survival of Autocratic Regimes,"Democracy and Security, 16, no. 1 (2020): 36-58.
(lead author) with Scott Mainwaring “US Hegemony and Regime Change in Latin America,”Democratization, 26, no. 2 (2019): 269-287. Appendix 1, Appendix 2, Appendix 3.
“The Argentina-Brazil Regional Power Transition,”Foreign Policy Analysis, 14, no. 4 (2018): 469-489.
“The Southern African unipolarity,”Journal of Contemporary African Studies, 36, no. 2 (2018): 207-228.
with Nicole Jenne and Francisco Urdinez “Of words and deeds: Latin American declaratory regionalism, 1994-2014,”Cambridge Review of International Affairs, 30, no. 2 (2017): 195-215.
“La Lógica Realista de la Unipolaridad Sudamericana,”Desarrollo Económico, 57, no. 222 (2017): 253-276.
“Subsystemic Unipolarities? Power Distribution and State Behaviour in South America and Southern Africa,”Strategic Analysis, 41, no. 1 (2017):74-86.
with Carlos Escude “Peripheral Realism Revisited,”Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional, 59, no. 1 (2016): 1-18.
with Francisco Urdinez, Fernando Mouron and Amâncio Oliveira “Chinese Economic Statecraft and US Hegemony in Latin America: An Empirical Analysis, 2003–2014,”Latin American Politics and Society, 58, no. 4 (2016): 3-30.
Book Chapters
with Aníbal Pérez Liñán and Kelly Morrison “Addressing Conceptual Challenges: Compliance and Impact“ in Armin von Bogdandy et al. (eds.) The Impact of the Inter-American Human Rights System (New York: Oxford University Press, 2024).
“Reinvented Governments in Latin America“ in Miguel Centeno and Agustin Ferraro (eds.) State Making and Nation Making in Latin America and Spain: The Neoliberal State and Beyond (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2023).
with Paul Diehl, Gary Goertz, and Andrew Owsiak “Political Shocks and the Punctuated Equilibrium Model“ in William Thompson and Thomas Volgy (eds.) Shocks and Political Change (London: Springer, 2023).
with Diego Leiva “Dual Hegemony: Brazil Between the United States and China“ in Florian Boeller and Welf Werner (eds.) Hegemonic Transition (London: Springer, 2021).
“Brazil: Pursuing the Multipolar Mirage“ in Benjamin Zala (ed.) National Perspectives on a Multipolar Order (Manchester: Manchester University Press, 2021).
(with Pierfrancesco Moscuzza) “The United States, Democracy, and Authoritarianism in Latin America“ in Pablo Baisotti (ed.) Problems and Alternatives in the Modern Americas (London: Routledge, 2021).
“Hegemony“ in Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2019).
with Andrés Malamud “Neoliberal Institutionalism and Neo-Functionalism in Latin American Security Studies,” in David Mares and Arie Kacowicz (eds.) Routledge Handbook of Latin American Security (London: Routledge, 2015).
Policy Papers
with Paul Diehl, Andy Owsiak, and Gary Goertz “Tracking the Evolution of Conflict: Barometers for Interstate and Civil Conflict“ United States Institute of Peace, vol 23. no. 4 (2023).
with Nicolás Albertoni “What to Expect From US-Latin America Relations in the Era of Bolsonaro?“Harvard Kennedy School - Latin America Policy Journal, no. 8 (2019).
with Victor Mijares and Anne Hoffmann “Die Krise in Venezuela – Prüfstein für die UNASUR“GIGA Focus Lateinamerika, no. 3 (2015).
“Le Brésil et son parcours vers une hégémonie en Amérique du Sud“Sciences Po - Observatoire Politique de l'Amérique latine et des Caraïbes, no. 2 (2014).
Working Papers
with Felipe Campos and Camilo Nieto “The Unintended Consequences of the War on Drugs in Colombia.“
with Lucas Paes, Thales Carvalho, Marina Duque, and Andres Malamud “Regional Relevance.“
with Thales Carvalho, Steffen Eckhard, and Inken von Borzyskowski “Explaining the decline of UN Resolutions on Civil War.“
Op-Eds
"Why Maduro is Bluffing" The Duck of Minerva, 12/20/2023.
with Andres Malamud "Latin America Is Off the Global Stage" Foreign Policy, 10/09/2020.
"Bipolarity or Hegemony? Latin America's dilemma for the 21st century" E-International Relations, 02/24/2019.
with Scott Mainwaring "Democracy is in Crisis in Latin America" The Washington Post (Monkey Cage), 10/22/2018.
"Brasil contrae su política exterior" La Nación, 07/12/2017.
"Could China undermine the US in Latin America?" The Washington Post (Monkey Cage), 12/03/2016.